So, here we are again, the 17 days this season will ultimately be remembered for are rapidly approaching, and tradition dictates we have one of these threads.
I was pleasantly surprised by the standard of play we had a year ago. There seemed to be hardly any scrappy matches, and the standard of breakbuilding was superb throughout the tournament. I was happy to see the centuries record broken, as the previous one was achieved in controversial circumstances and didn't really have much credibility, whereas last year had nothing to do with generous pockets. Personally I like a bit of drama and an occasional midnight finish, so I wouldn't mind a slightly slower and more tense Championship, but I certainly wouldn't complain if it was similar to last year either. :smile:
It's becoming increasingly more difficult to find the time for these long posts, so let's do this one properly in case it turns out to be my last-ever World Championship preview of this length...
So, who is going to win the 2016 World Championship?
As always, let's start at the other end with a couple of players who have no chance of winning this title. Mitchell Mann is the only debutant this year and probably the biggest underdog in the field. He has very limited experience at major venues, apart from a mildly successful trip to Chengdu last season, so just getting to the Crucible is already the best result of his career so far. I would put Zhang Anda alongside him. This is a player who first played at the Crucible as a teenager back in 2010, and showed great promise by taking Stephen Hendry to a deciding frame in the 1st round. Unfortunately that has remained the highlight of his career up to this day. He returned to the Crucible last year, but didn't really give Perry much of a game. Can he do better this time?
Sam Baird is another player who has never played at the business end of any major event, and his only previous visit to the Crucible ended in a heavy 1st round defeat. He probably drew the easiest possible seed in the 1st round, so he has a chance to do better this time, but I wouldn't expect much from him. Robbie Williams has reached the Crucible for the third year in a row, but he too is yet to win a match here. He actually has a ranking semi-final to his name, in the 2013 Indian Open, but ignoring that travesty of an event, his results are much like Baird's. Joe Perry was frustrated with what he perceived as slow and negative play by Williams in the UK Championship this season, so it will be interesting to see how Walden deals with him in the 1st round here, as Walden himself had a similar experience against Rory McLeod here a few years ago.
I think we can safely rule out Michael Holt as well. A very consistent player this season, winning at least one match at every venue until the PTC Finals, but no major highlights. He has played at the Crucible quite a few times over the years, but has only won one match here in the past, against the ailing Paul Hunter in 2005. Robert Milkins of course had a very memorable win against Neil Robertson here three years ago, but he too has mostly struggled at the Crucible over the years. The previous couple of seasons were among the best of his career, and it seems quite common for players to peak in their late 30s these days, but it seems like age has caught up with Milkins now, with no notable runs in any major event this season.
Anthony McGill has also been in disappointing form this season. He was a quarter-finalist in both the UK and the World Championship last season, so it was reasonable to expect he would make further progress, considering he is 25 now, but we have barely seen him at venues all season. I expect we will see him at the business end of the World Championship a few more times in the future, but he doesn't really have any great form behind him at the moment. Alan McManus was himself a quarter-finalist only two years ago, at a very difference stage of his career of course, but in similarly disappointing form this season. Still, I think he would consider Maguire a very beatable opponent in the 1st round here. Peter Ebdon is the same age as McManus, returning to the Crucible after losing in the qualifiers the previous two years. He actually hasn't won a match at the Crucible since 2008, so it's hard to see him challenging for the World title ever again. In fact, I think the longer matches work against him now, as he finds it increasingly more difficult to hold his form for extended periods.
Moving on to two players who have been in better form this season. Ryan Day has reached two major quarter-finals and generally played well at most venues. He had a couple of quiet years at the beginning of the decade, but he has now found his way back to the status of a very dangerous qualifier, and I don't think any seed particularly wanted to draw him here. He has reached the quarter-finals of the World Championship three times in his career already, so a fourth wouldn't be a major surprise. That said, he wasn't able to win any titles even when he was the world number six, so winning the World title in his late 30s is unrealistic. David Gilbert has enjoyed by far the best season of his career, finally stringing a few good performances together to reach the final of the International Championship, where he actually gave Higgins a better game than the result suggests. He is a danger to anyone if he can reproduce that sort of form, O'Sullivan included, but it's worth mentioning that that final is his one and only appearance at the business end of any major event so far.
It's becoming increasingly more difficult to dismiss players' chances, but I think I would also rule out Graeme Dott this year. He is of course a former champion and a finalist on three occasions, but despite being a top player for most of his career, he has only won two major titles in more than 20 years, the last one way back in 2007. He reached the semi-finals of the German Masters earlier this season, but he is not playing consistently enough, or even well enough, to make me think he could be a danger here. Mark Williams is his 1st round opponent, another player I don't have a good feeling about. He only has one major quarter-final to his name this season, in the Shanghai Masters way back in September, and he doesn't look like he has any ambition to return to the top of the game. He is losing to players he should be beating easily if he wants to win major titles again. Last season went much better for him, but even then he succumbed to the pressure when he had a chance of actually winning something, losing to Ben Woollaston in a ranking semi-final, and to Perry from 3-0 up in a best-of-7 final.
Speaking of Joe Perry, the consistency he has achieved over the last three seasons is remarkable for someone his age. He got to the semi-finals of the Champion of Champions, the Welsh Open and the World Grand Prix this season, on top of a couple of major quarter-finals as well. It would perhaps be harsh to rule out the 10th seed, but it's the lack of major titles that makes me doubt Perry's chances here. He has been a professional for more than 20 years now, but he has never won any major title, apart from a short-format tournament last season. He did get to the semi-finals of the UK Championship twice when it still had the long matches though, and he also played in the one-table setup at the Crucible back in 2008, narrowly losing to Ali Carter in the semi-finals. I don't particularly like Carter's chances this year either, considering he hasn't really been close to winning any major title in the last three seasons. His decline is understandable of course, and back-to-back quarter-finals last month are perhaps a sign he is not quite finished yet. The Crucible is surely one of his favourite venues, having played in the World final on two occasions, so perhaps it could inspire him to a good performance. It's tough to see him winning the title though.
The final two players I would rule out are still in their 20s, with plenty of time to still improve as players, but I don't think they currently have the game or the mental strength to win this title. It was the Crucible where Liang Wenbo first showed his promise, by getting to the quarter-finals back in 2008. He actually hasn't won a match here since, so perhaps he is due another good performance. He impressed with his run to the UK final this season, and it's certainly nice to see him rediscover the kind of form he had seven or eight years ago, but unfortunately his shortcomings are still there. His shot selection is unorthodox, to put it politely, he misses sitters way too often because of poor concentration, and he struggles with consistency too much for a tournament like this one. I think he will eventually win a major title or two though. Michael White also made a name for himself at the Crucible, when he beat Mark Williams in the 1st round in 2013 and went on to reach the quarter-finals. It took him a while to follow up that run with a few more like it, but we do now expect to see him at the business end of tournaments from time to time. He won the minor event in India last season, and it's probably only a matter of time until he wins something more notable. I'm not sure about his chances in this tournament though. The first thing that springs to mind when I think of White is his pathetic meltdown against Allen in the Welsh Open, when he let one unfortunate frame completely take over his mental state, and I've generally not been impressed with how he deals with setbacks. He should work on that, unless he wants to follow Maguire's path.
In my opinion, the remaining 15 players have at least an outside chance of winning this title.
Let's start with Barry Hawkins, who has become something of a specialist for the World Championship in recent years. He has reached the one-table setup for three years in a row now, which is something no other player has done in this period. Unfortunately for him, he has landed in the same quarter as O'Sullivan and Murphy, the only two players who have beaten him at the Crucible recently. Hawkins was in the top8 of the rankings for a while, after two excellent seasons in 12/13 and 13/14, but more recently his form hasn't been as good. He has struggled in the major events this season, the run to the final of the Masters being his only notable result. His game is more suited to the longer format though, so I wouldn't be surprised if the World Championship was his strongest event of the season again. His performance against Robertson in the quarter-finals last year was amazing, and we saw something close to it against Trump at the Masters this season, but he just doesn't produce it consistently enough to really challenge for major titles. The 2012 Australian Open remains the only traditional ranking event he has won so far, so it would be a little unusual if he were to add the World title to it. He has proved he has the game to reach the business end of this tournament, but his nerve is a little more suspect, considering he lost the last two semi-finals with a session to spare or close to it.
Marco Fu is in the same part of the draw, a semi-finalist in this event ten years ago. His story is similar to Hawkins' in some ways. He enjoyed probably the best period of his career between 2012 and 2014, but since then he has struggled to challenge for major titles. He is still regularly reaching the quarter-finals of major ranking and invitational events, which has kept him safely in the top16 for the time being, but it's worth noting that he has actually lost the last eight quarter-finals he's played in. Two of those have been this season, in the International and the UK Championship, two events with slightly longer matches. As for the World Championship, Fu hasn't been past the 2nd round at all since 2006. So, why are we not ruling him out? Well, there is no doubt that his A-game is extremely dangerous. He is one of the best scorers in the game, he doesn't really have any history of bottling big matches, and he has quite a good record against many of today's top players. I don't think anyone would particularly want to play him here. That said, the World Championship doesn't always come down to a player's A-game. There will inevitably be sessions or even whole matches where a player struggles to find their best form, and some players are very good at limiting their losses and doing the best they can in those situations. Unfortunately Fu is not really one of these players. When he is struggling, the result usually reflects it, and it's hard to see him not struggling at some point over 17 days.
Stephen Maguire has faced similar problems throughout his career. In 2007 and 2008 he probably played some of the best snooker ever seen at the Crucible, but still didn't even reach the final. In 2012 he lost to Carter in the semi-finals, and it was clear from the very start of the match that he had put himself under great pressure to win it, reacting angrily to every little setback. He once said that he wanted to win the World title before he was 30, otherwise the pressure would start to build, and it does look like his chance may have gone now. He came onto the scene along with Murphy, Robertson and Selby, and he was probably the strongest player of that generation when they were in their early and mid 20s, but now he has fallen miles behind the other three. He is a fantastic front-runner and very difficult to stop when he finds his form, but his mental approach lets him down more often than not, and it's hard to see that changing at this stage of his career. On a positive note, his season has not been too bad. He has reached two major semi-finals, including recently at the China Open, when he was under pressure to squeeze into the top16. He did what was required, and being the 16th seed now means he has landed in Bingham's quarter, which may be a little easier than facing a Robertson or an O'Sullivan early on. He drew McManus in the 1st round, which should give him a decent chance of going through. He is not particularly reliable though, having lost in the 1st round for three years in a row now. Will he come better prepared this time?
It will be interesting to see how Ricky Walden does this year. Last year he came to the tournament as the reigning International champion, which probably put him among the favourites for the title, but this year the situation is a little different. Until last month he was actually having a pretty dreadful season, losing in the qualifiers or the early stages of every major event, but he turned it around by reaching the final of the two events leading up to this Championship. That could mean that he is finding his best form just at the right time, or it could mean that he has peaked a little too early. He is one of those players who don't look particularly impressive on most days, but once in a while he plays an excellent tournament and just beats whoever is put in front of him. So far those tournaments have mostly been in China, while his performances back home have not been quite as good. The Crucible in particular has not been the most memorable venue for him. He reached the semi-finals in 2013, but apart from that he has only played here four more times, which is amazing for someone who has been near the top of the game for as long as Walden has. It would be unwise to rule him out here, but I don't think he is currently playing consistently enough to win this title.
Kyren Wilson comes to this tournament as the reigning Shanghai Masters champion, just like Bingham last year. He is probably one of those players the people who only watch the BBC events wouldn't give much chance to, but I think the rest of us know better. Surprising winners or finalists of major events often have a quiet period immediately after their big success, but Wilson has avoided that very well this season. He followed his win with runs to the semi-finals of the Champion of Champions and the German Masters, and he has given us no reason to think he would drop down the ranking again anytime soon. His one previous visit to the Crucible wasn't all that great. I remember him missing a very easy black off the spot for the frame, at the end of what should have been a routine colour clearance, and I remember thinking he wasn't handling the pressure very well at the time. It should be a different story now that he has a ranking title to his name though. He could have got a tougher draw than Perry as well. In fact, he beat both Perry and Allen on his way to the title in Shanghai, so I'm sure they won't be pleased to see Wilson in their quarter. I've also been impressed with his battling qualities in various matches this season, particularly in Berlin, and it's something you badly need if you want to be successful in this event. He might need a bit more experience before he becomes a true contender though.
Martin Gould is another winner of a major event this season. He wasn't much of a threat in the World Championship in previous years, but there is no doubt he has made major progress as a player this season. It all started with his run to the final of the Australian Open in the summer, which gave him the confidence to play very well in most events before new year. He then finally won his first major ranking title, the German Masters in February. He used to be known as someone who easily cracks under pressure, but he has largely got rid of that reputation now, and he definitely deserves to appear at the Crucible as a seeded player for the second time in his career. I have a feeling he will be a lot more comfortable in this role than he was the first time. I wouldn't put him among the favourites for the title though. First of all, he has never reached the business end of the World Championship, so it remains to be seen whether he can handle the pressure when we get to the one-table setup and the really long matches. The World Championship allows for a lot of momentum swings and comebacks, which doesn't really benefit a quick starter like Gould. I'm sure we all remember the 11-5 lead he had against Robertson in 2010, and winning that match would have given him an excellent chance against Steve Davis in the quarter-finals, but that third session turned out to be one too many for him. There is also a question of form with him, having not played particularly well in this last part of the season so far. He actually got whitewashed by a local kid in the 1st round of the China Open, which can't be a great sign ahead of this tournament. Drawing Ding in the 1st round doesn't help either.
Moving on to the players who have a more realistic chance of winning this title...
Mark Allen has been playing well all season. He was a semi-finalist in the Shanghai Masters and the Welsh Open, then capitalized on his good form by winning the PTC Finals last month. That tournament was a great example of why Allen could be dangerous here. He found himself behind against Murphy in the semi-finals and again against Walden in the final, but he kept fighting and eventually took control of both matches. You can't win the World title without fighting qualities. You also need to have the game of course, and Allen has that as well. He pots and scores really well, he holds his own in the safety, and doesn't really get scared of the winning line. It was clear to see how much winning that title meant to him last month. I just hope it has given him the motivation to really prepare for this tournament, rather than get complacent and think he can do well without really putting the work in. He didn't qualify for the China Open, so he had a longer break than most other top players. That's the third year in a row when he was able to avoid the trip to China, but so far that hasn't proved to be any great advantage. In fact, Allen has failed to progress past the early rounds in the last four World Championships, so he kind of has a point to prove here. His draw is quite reasonable this year, so it's up to him to take advantage.
I always struggle to decide what group to put Ding Junhui in. Some people have completely dismissed his chances of winning the World title this year, or ever in fact, even though it's only two years since he held four major titles at once. Unfortunately the 2014 China Open is also the last major title he has won, so it's been a pretty long title drought for him now. He hasn't got particularly close in any event this season, but he has still had some respectable results, including a major semi-final and three further quarter-finals. Unfortunately most of those have been in the best-of-7 format (so it's already a stretch to call them "major" events), while the Crucible is a completely different test altogether. We all know the Crucible has not been his best venue over the years, it would be foolish to argue otherwise, but I do think this is overstated sometimes. His 1st round defeat to Michael Wasley two years ago is the only real shock he has had at the Crucible, at the end of a really strong season for him when it was clear he didn't have much left, while his other defeats have all been against top players or dangerous qualifiers such as Ryan Day. He played one of the all-time great semi-finals against Trump in 2011, and he came up against Trump in ridiculous form again last year, when he was probably playing well enough to progress further in the tournament if he had been a little luckier with the draw. This is a player who has won everything in the game apart from this title, and he would easily be among the favourites here if he could find the kind of form and composure that saw him win four major events two seasons ago. He dealt with the qualifiers without any problems, and he comes here match-sharp and very dangerous. He could have got a worse draw than Gould as well, although I suppose it doesn't really matter that much. He needs to beat them all if he wants to be World champion anyway.
That's exactly what Stuart Bingham did a year ago. He played superb snooker throughout the tournament, and he had one of the toughest routes to the title of any champion in recent years, so no one can dismiss it as a fluke. The following season was always going to be a tricky one for him. I imagine it's not easy to motivate yourself after you've just won the biggest title in the game, but at the same time the luxury of being an underdog is gone, and you are suddenly expected to win all the time. I think Bingham would have been happy just to win one major title this season, but unfortunately it hasn't quite happened for him. He got very close in the World Grand Prix, losing 10-9 to Murphy in the final. He was also a semi-finalist in the Masters and the Shanghai Masters, but apart from that it's mostly been early exits. I'm sure there will be some talk of the Crucible Curse on Saturday... It would be funny if Bingham was the player that finally managed to break it, after all the great players that have failed to do it down the years. I'm sure it will be an emotional return for him, although it's worth noting that the Crucible wasn't actually among his best venues prior to last year. Carter is exactly the kind of opponent defending champions have been caught out against in the past, so he needs to find his form pretty quickly, especially as his 1st round match will be played in its entirety on the first day. Most people underestimated Bingham last year, myself included, so it would be silly to do so again. That said, he came into the tournament as the reigning Shanghai Masters champion, whereas this year he doesn't really have any great form behind him, so I don't think he will be right at the top of most people's list of favourites here.
I have a feeling Shaun Murphy just might be. He actually went almost ten months without reaching the business end of any major event after his World final last May, but he never gave the impression he was struggling in any way, so this drought went largely unnoticed. It seems he has now found his form just at the right time, winning the World Grand Prix in great style last month. He is a very composed character who doesn't really let anything unsettle him, so it's no wonder he has always done well in the longer matches. He has reached the business end of the World Championship eight times in the last eleven years, which is a record only O'Sullivan can compare with. The decision to go back to a more natural, attacking game seems to have been the correct one for Murphy. It's the kind of game that won him the World title in 2005, and he played very similarly to win the Masters last season and complete the Triple Crown. When the long balls are going in he generally wins matches, but of course it's much more difficult for him to limit the damage when they're not going in. I think he needs to be at his very best to have a chance of winning this Championship. He has the game, the experience and the mental strength to go all the way, and I have the feeling he is perhaps due another big title. That's why I was tempted to include him among the big favourites in this post, but I ultimately decided against it. My biggest problem with Murphy is the fact that O'Sullivan has landed in his quarter. Murphy generally doesn't have a problem facing anyone, but O'Sullivan is clearly an exception, and Murphy admitted as much himself after losing to him with a session to spare two years ago. It was a pathetic performance that Murphy is not likely to forget anytime soon, so I am not entirely convinced things would go differently this time. That said, Murphy did manage to beat O'Sullivan when they met in the German Masters last season, 5-4 on the final black.
Mark Selby is surely a strong contender in any tournament he plays in, although it would be hard to justify putting him among the big favourites this year. This has arguably been his worst season since he first reached a World final in 2007, and it looks like it will be the first time in years that he fails to end the season as the world number one. He actually played alright before new year, getting to the semi-finals of the International and the UK Championship and losing to the eventual champion both times. At that point I didn't think he would go the rest of the season without doing anything of note, but that's exactly what's happened. He withdrew from the last two events for personal reasons, which can't possibly be a good sign, although it's hard to say how that will affect his chances without knowing what those reasons were. There is no doubt Selby is a great battler though, and he usually plays his best when he is under the most pressure. He is one of the best tacticians in the game, a very solid scorer at his best, and he plays the game of snooker with more heart than anyone. His draw here isn't too difficult, and it gives him the chance to play himself into form before he runs into the really top players. He hasn't won a major title since the 2015 China Open just over a year ago, so on the one hand his confidence probably isn't great at the moment, but on the other hand he is definitely due a big title, and it could be this one.
That just leaves the four players who could be considered the big favourites for this year's World title.
Let's start with John Higgins. I was a little reluctant to include him in this group, as my gut feeling tells me he probably doesn't have another World title in him, but based on this season's results there isn't really any good reason to exclude him, especially if we take into account his career as a whole. This is a player who looked like his winning days were over, then went on to win three major ranking titles in 2015, including two this season. His performance to win the International Championship was some of the best snooker anyone has produced all season, and he was a frame away from knocking Robertson out of the UK Championship and probably making himself the tournament favourite in the process. Since new year he hasn't been quite as impressive, although he has still played well at times and just recently reached the semi-finals of the China Open. History tells us that great form just prior to the World Championship doesn't guarantee anything, and it's often the players who have won major titles in the first half of the season that end up doing well here. Higgins' record at the Crucible is quite interesting. He reached the business end of the tournament for eight years in a row between 1996 and 2003, but since then he has actually gone out in the early rounds nine times in twelve appearances. The only three exceptions are 2007, 2009 and 2011, the years when he became World champion. O'Sullivan is often described as an inconsistent player who wins whenever he brings his best snooker to a tournament, but I think that actually applies to Higgins more, while O'Sullivan has had quite consistent results in the World Championship over the years. In any case, Higgins is not a young man anymore, so he is definitely prone to bad sessions and unexpected mistakes, but he also has a bulletproof game when at his best, and there is no one more experienced than him. He has a habit of coming back strongly whenever people are starting to rule him out. As I said, I won't be voting for him on this occasion, but I'm certainly not betting against him either if he makes it to the business end.
Judd Trump has been one of the most consistent players at the Crucible in recent years, usually producing his best snooker or something close to it. Unfortunately he always seems to come up short just as the title begins to look like a possibility for him. His performance against Ding in the quarter-finals last year was superb, but he failed to reproduce it against Bingham when it mattered the most. Still, the list of players that have beaten him at the Crucible is very impressive, and so far only includes the top players. Looking through the favourites for this title, it looks odds against that we get a first-time winner this year, as previous champions far outnumber the other contenders. But if we do get a new winner, I think Trump is the player most likely to do it. Unlike Ding, Maguire or Allen, Trump is still young enough not to feel like time is running out for him. Or at least he shouldn't feel that way, since he is now the same age as O'Sullivan was when he won his first World title. He comes to this tournament on the back of his China Open title, and of course it's worth mentioning that you have to go back almost 20 years to find a player who won the penultimate event of the season, then went on to become World champion. It hasn't happened at all in the time when the China Open has been the penultimate event. That said, Trump came very close to doing it in 2011, when he won the China Open and only missed the World title by three frames in the final. I actually think it was important for him to win in Beijing. He had played some of the best snooker in the world all season, but most of it was wasted on the early rounds of events, while other players were winning titles. I'm sure the China Open title has given him the confidence he needed ahead of this tournament, and a confident Trump is a very dangerous player, difficult to stop. He is in the same quarter as Robertson and Ding here, so he needs all the confidence he can get. He has always been a great potter and a strong scorer, and some of the safety he has played in recent times has been top notch as well. Does he finally have the maturity and the experience needed to go all the way?
Neil Robertson has won everything one can win in snooker, including the World title in 2010, and he has been one of the best players in the world this season. It's interesting, he started winning major titles a decade ago, and at first he struggled with consistency a lot, usually following a good tournament with a couple of bad ones. He was eventually able to reverse that trend, but it seems to have returned this season. He won the Champion of Champions and the UK Championship in the first half of the season, then reached the final in Wales as well, but apart from that it's been almost exclusively early exits for him. I suppose the longer matches here should be more to his liking, with less chance of a slow start or a temporary loss of form ruining his chances. I thought he played some terrific snooker here in 2014 and 2015, but he came across two players in inspired form in Selby and Hawkins respectively. I think Robertson probably has another World title in him. His scoring has been on par with O'Sullivan's in recent years, vastly superior to what it was like in 2010 when he won this title. His will to win is still there, and he seems to have limitless reserves of patience and concentration. The downside is that he is prone to overthinking situations, and he sometimes slows down too much and loses his scoring rhythm as a result. "He plays better when he speeds up a little" is a platitude you often hear in snooker, and sometimes it's quite clearly not true, but I think it does apply in Robertson's case. It's hard to survive the 17 days if every match is an epic battle, you need to make it easy for yourself at least some of the time. It's already tough enough for Robertson that he landed in the same quarter as Trump, the one player he doesn't have the best record against. It's also a question what kind of form he is in at the moment. His performance to win the UK title was reminiscent of the way he won the Grand Prix in 2009, before going on to win the Worlds, but on the other hand he hasn't actually won a match since the Welsh Open in February, which is amazing and a little worrying for a player of his class. Can he raise his game one final time this season?
And let's conclude with Ronnie O'Sullivan on this occasion. As I said above, his reputation for inconsistency is largely undeserved. He has reached the business end of the World Championship for six years in a row now, and has only failed to do so four times in the last 21 years. He has quite literally been the man to beat at the Crucible in recent times, as every Championship since 2011 has either been won by O'Sullivan or the player who knocked him out. He comes to this tournament having not played much snooker this season. He only played at three major venues prior to this event, but he still managed to win two titles, the same as Robertson and Higgins. If snooker was a computer game, I think O'Sullivan would have two "lives" at every event. He can either play brilliantly and win it in style, like he did in the Welsh Open, or he can play nothing special and still end up winning, as his opponents defeat themselves even before the match starts, like in the Masters or last season's UK Championship. O'Sullivan has worked hard over the years to build up this aura of invincibility. It only takes short bursts of great form now for him to put immense pressure on his opponents, and he knows how to finish them the moment he senses any weakness. He is still the best scorer in the game, along with Robertson perhaps, and he has a better safety game than the vast majority of other contenders. It also seems like his long game has returned to what it was like before its decline around 2008, which is amazing for a player in his 40s now. Of course O'Sullivan's results have often come down to his mental state rather than his form in the past, and even in that respect he seems to be really strong at the moment. His composure at the Welsh Open was very good, as was his response to going a few frames behind in the final, which was basically his only setback all week. The long matches here mean there is lots of time for something to go wrong, but also lots of time to recover from any setbacks, which should give an advantage to the really top players such as O'Sullivan. It's tough to find any weakness with him at the moment, but I suppose history speaks for itself. He has been the tournament favourite almost every year for a long time now, but statistically he doesn't actually win all that often. He is still probably getting my vote this year though.
I think that's about all I have to say before the snooker starts. :smile:
Who do you think is going to win the 2016 World Championship?
Who is going to win the 2016 World Championship?
I was pleasantly surprised by the standard of play we had a year ago. There seemed to be hardly any scrappy matches, and the standard of breakbuilding was superb throughout the tournament. I was happy to see the centuries record broken, as the previous one was achieved in controversial circumstances and didn't really have much credibility, whereas last year had nothing to do with generous pockets. Personally I like a bit of drama and an occasional midnight finish, so I wouldn't mind a slightly slower and more tense Championship, but I certainly wouldn't complain if it was similar to last year either. :smile:
It's becoming increasingly more difficult to find the time for these long posts, so let's do this one properly in case it turns out to be my last-ever World Championship preview of this length...
So, who is going to win the 2016 World Championship?
As always, let's start at the other end with a couple of players who have no chance of winning this title. Mitchell Mann is the only debutant this year and probably the biggest underdog in the field. He has very limited experience at major venues, apart from a mildly successful trip to Chengdu last season, so just getting to the Crucible is already the best result of his career so far. I would put Zhang Anda alongside him. This is a player who first played at the Crucible as a teenager back in 2010, and showed great promise by taking Stephen Hendry to a deciding frame in the 1st round. Unfortunately that has remained the highlight of his career up to this day. He returned to the Crucible last year, but didn't really give Perry much of a game. Can he do better this time?
Sam Baird is another player who has never played at the business end of any major event, and his only previous visit to the Crucible ended in a heavy 1st round defeat. He probably drew the easiest possible seed in the 1st round, so he has a chance to do better this time, but I wouldn't expect much from him. Robbie Williams has reached the Crucible for the third year in a row, but he too is yet to win a match here. He actually has a ranking semi-final to his name, in the 2013 Indian Open, but ignoring that travesty of an event, his results are much like Baird's. Joe Perry was frustrated with what he perceived as slow and negative play by Williams in the UK Championship this season, so it will be interesting to see how Walden deals with him in the 1st round here, as Walden himself had a similar experience against Rory McLeod here a few years ago.
I think we can safely rule out Michael Holt as well. A very consistent player this season, winning at least one match at every venue until the PTC Finals, but no major highlights. He has played at the Crucible quite a few times over the years, but has only won one match here in the past, against the ailing Paul Hunter in 2005. Robert Milkins of course had a very memorable win against Neil Robertson here three years ago, but he too has mostly struggled at the Crucible over the years. The previous couple of seasons were among the best of his career, and it seems quite common for players to peak in their late 30s these days, but it seems like age has caught up with Milkins now, with no notable runs in any major event this season.
Anthony McGill has also been in disappointing form this season. He was a quarter-finalist in both the UK and the World Championship last season, so it was reasonable to expect he would make further progress, considering he is 25 now, but we have barely seen him at venues all season. I expect we will see him at the business end of the World Championship a few more times in the future, but he doesn't really have any great form behind him at the moment. Alan McManus was himself a quarter-finalist only two years ago, at a very difference stage of his career of course, but in similarly disappointing form this season. Still, I think he would consider Maguire a very beatable opponent in the 1st round here. Peter Ebdon is the same age as McManus, returning to the Crucible after losing in the qualifiers the previous two years. He actually hasn't won a match at the Crucible since 2008, so it's hard to see him challenging for the World title ever again. In fact, I think the longer matches work against him now, as he finds it increasingly more difficult to hold his form for extended periods.
Moving on to two players who have been in better form this season. Ryan Day has reached two major quarter-finals and generally played well at most venues. He had a couple of quiet years at the beginning of the decade, but he has now found his way back to the status of a very dangerous qualifier, and I don't think any seed particularly wanted to draw him here. He has reached the quarter-finals of the World Championship three times in his career already, so a fourth wouldn't be a major surprise. That said, he wasn't able to win any titles even when he was the world number six, so winning the World title in his late 30s is unrealistic. David Gilbert has enjoyed by far the best season of his career, finally stringing a few good performances together to reach the final of the International Championship, where he actually gave Higgins a better game than the result suggests. He is a danger to anyone if he can reproduce that sort of form, O'Sullivan included, but it's worth mentioning that that final is his one and only appearance at the business end of any major event so far.
It's becoming increasingly more difficult to dismiss players' chances, but I think I would also rule out Graeme Dott this year. He is of course a former champion and a finalist on three occasions, but despite being a top player for most of his career, he has only won two major titles in more than 20 years, the last one way back in 2007. He reached the semi-finals of the German Masters earlier this season, but he is not playing consistently enough, or even well enough, to make me think he could be a danger here. Mark Williams is his 1st round opponent, another player I don't have a good feeling about. He only has one major quarter-final to his name this season, in the Shanghai Masters way back in September, and he doesn't look like he has any ambition to return to the top of the game. He is losing to players he should be beating easily if he wants to win major titles again. Last season went much better for him, but even then he succumbed to the pressure when he had a chance of actually winning something, losing to Ben Woollaston in a ranking semi-final, and to Perry from 3-0 up in a best-of-7 final.
Speaking of Joe Perry, the consistency he has achieved over the last three seasons is remarkable for someone his age. He got to the semi-finals of the Champion of Champions, the Welsh Open and the World Grand Prix this season, on top of a couple of major quarter-finals as well. It would perhaps be harsh to rule out the 10th seed, but it's the lack of major titles that makes me doubt Perry's chances here. He has been a professional for more than 20 years now, but he has never won any major title, apart from a short-format tournament last season. He did get to the semi-finals of the UK Championship twice when it still had the long matches though, and he also played in the one-table setup at the Crucible back in 2008, narrowly losing to Ali Carter in the semi-finals. I don't particularly like Carter's chances this year either, considering he hasn't really been close to winning any major title in the last three seasons. His decline is understandable of course, and back-to-back quarter-finals last month are perhaps a sign he is not quite finished yet. The Crucible is surely one of his favourite venues, having played in the World final on two occasions, so perhaps it could inspire him to a good performance. It's tough to see him winning the title though.
The final two players I would rule out are still in their 20s, with plenty of time to still improve as players, but I don't think they currently have the game or the mental strength to win this title. It was the Crucible where Liang Wenbo first showed his promise, by getting to the quarter-finals back in 2008. He actually hasn't won a match here since, so perhaps he is due another good performance. He impressed with his run to the UK final this season, and it's certainly nice to see him rediscover the kind of form he had seven or eight years ago, but unfortunately his shortcomings are still there. His shot selection is unorthodox, to put it politely, he misses sitters way too often because of poor concentration, and he struggles with consistency too much for a tournament like this one. I think he will eventually win a major title or two though. Michael White also made a name for himself at the Crucible, when he beat Mark Williams in the 1st round in 2013 and went on to reach the quarter-finals. It took him a while to follow up that run with a few more like it, but we do now expect to see him at the business end of tournaments from time to time. He won the minor event in India last season, and it's probably only a matter of time until he wins something more notable. I'm not sure about his chances in this tournament though. The first thing that springs to mind when I think of White is his pathetic meltdown against Allen in the Welsh Open, when he let one unfortunate frame completely take over his mental state, and I've generally not been impressed with how he deals with setbacks. He should work on that, unless he wants to follow Maguire's path.
In my opinion, the remaining 15 players have at least an outside chance of winning this title.
Let's start with Barry Hawkins, who has become something of a specialist for the World Championship in recent years. He has reached the one-table setup for three years in a row now, which is something no other player has done in this period. Unfortunately for him, he has landed in the same quarter as O'Sullivan and Murphy, the only two players who have beaten him at the Crucible recently. Hawkins was in the top8 of the rankings for a while, after two excellent seasons in 12/13 and 13/14, but more recently his form hasn't been as good. He has struggled in the major events this season, the run to the final of the Masters being his only notable result. His game is more suited to the longer format though, so I wouldn't be surprised if the World Championship was his strongest event of the season again. His performance against Robertson in the quarter-finals last year was amazing, and we saw something close to it against Trump at the Masters this season, but he just doesn't produce it consistently enough to really challenge for major titles. The 2012 Australian Open remains the only traditional ranking event he has won so far, so it would be a little unusual if he were to add the World title to it. He has proved he has the game to reach the business end of this tournament, but his nerve is a little more suspect, considering he lost the last two semi-finals with a session to spare or close to it.
Marco Fu is in the same part of the draw, a semi-finalist in this event ten years ago. His story is similar to Hawkins' in some ways. He enjoyed probably the best period of his career between 2012 and 2014, but since then he has struggled to challenge for major titles. He is still regularly reaching the quarter-finals of major ranking and invitational events, which has kept him safely in the top16 for the time being, but it's worth noting that he has actually lost the last eight quarter-finals he's played in. Two of those have been this season, in the International and the UK Championship, two events with slightly longer matches. As for the World Championship, Fu hasn't been past the 2nd round at all since 2006. So, why are we not ruling him out? Well, there is no doubt that his A-game is extremely dangerous. He is one of the best scorers in the game, he doesn't really have any history of bottling big matches, and he has quite a good record against many of today's top players. I don't think anyone would particularly want to play him here. That said, the World Championship doesn't always come down to a player's A-game. There will inevitably be sessions or even whole matches where a player struggles to find their best form, and some players are very good at limiting their losses and doing the best they can in those situations. Unfortunately Fu is not really one of these players. When he is struggling, the result usually reflects it, and it's hard to see him not struggling at some point over 17 days.
Stephen Maguire has faced similar problems throughout his career. In 2007 and 2008 he probably played some of the best snooker ever seen at the Crucible, but still didn't even reach the final. In 2012 he lost to Carter in the semi-finals, and it was clear from the very start of the match that he had put himself under great pressure to win it, reacting angrily to every little setback. He once said that he wanted to win the World title before he was 30, otherwise the pressure would start to build, and it does look like his chance may have gone now. He came onto the scene along with Murphy, Robertson and Selby, and he was probably the strongest player of that generation when they were in their early and mid 20s, but now he has fallen miles behind the other three. He is a fantastic front-runner and very difficult to stop when he finds his form, but his mental approach lets him down more often than not, and it's hard to see that changing at this stage of his career. On a positive note, his season has not been too bad. He has reached two major semi-finals, including recently at the China Open, when he was under pressure to squeeze into the top16. He did what was required, and being the 16th seed now means he has landed in Bingham's quarter, which may be a little easier than facing a Robertson or an O'Sullivan early on. He drew McManus in the 1st round, which should give him a decent chance of going through. He is not particularly reliable though, having lost in the 1st round for three years in a row now. Will he come better prepared this time?
It will be interesting to see how Ricky Walden does this year. Last year he came to the tournament as the reigning International champion, which probably put him among the favourites for the title, but this year the situation is a little different. Until last month he was actually having a pretty dreadful season, losing in the qualifiers or the early stages of every major event, but he turned it around by reaching the final of the two events leading up to this Championship. That could mean that he is finding his best form just at the right time, or it could mean that he has peaked a little too early. He is one of those players who don't look particularly impressive on most days, but once in a while he plays an excellent tournament and just beats whoever is put in front of him. So far those tournaments have mostly been in China, while his performances back home have not been quite as good. The Crucible in particular has not been the most memorable venue for him. He reached the semi-finals in 2013, but apart from that he has only played here four more times, which is amazing for someone who has been near the top of the game for as long as Walden has. It would be unwise to rule him out here, but I don't think he is currently playing consistently enough to win this title.
Kyren Wilson comes to this tournament as the reigning Shanghai Masters champion, just like Bingham last year. He is probably one of those players the people who only watch the BBC events wouldn't give much chance to, but I think the rest of us know better. Surprising winners or finalists of major events often have a quiet period immediately after their big success, but Wilson has avoided that very well this season. He followed his win with runs to the semi-finals of the Champion of Champions and the German Masters, and he has given us no reason to think he would drop down the ranking again anytime soon. His one previous visit to the Crucible wasn't all that great. I remember him missing a very easy black off the spot for the frame, at the end of what should have been a routine colour clearance, and I remember thinking he wasn't handling the pressure very well at the time. It should be a different story now that he has a ranking title to his name though. He could have got a tougher draw than Perry as well. In fact, he beat both Perry and Allen on his way to the title in Shanghai, so I'm sure they won't be pleased to see Wilson in their quarter. I've also been impressed with his battling qualities in various matches this season, particularly in Berlin, and it's something you badly need if you want to be successful in this event. He might need a bit more experience before he becomes a true contender though.
Martin Gould is another winner of a major event this season. He wasn't much of a threat in the World Championship in previous years, but there is no doubt he has made major progress as a player this season. It all started with his run to the final of the Australian Open in the summer, which gave him the confidence to play very well in most events before new year. He then finally won his first major ranking title, the German Masters in February. He used to be known as someone who easily cracks under pressure, but he has largely got rid of that reputation now, and he definitely deserves to appear at the Crucible as a seeded player for the second time in his career. I have a feeling he will be a lot more comfortable in this role than he was the first time. I wouldn't put him among the favourites for the title though. First of all, he has never reached the business end of the World Championship, so it remains to be seen whether he can handle the pressure when we get to the one-table setup and the really long matches. The World Championship allows for a lot of momentum swings and comebacks, which doesn't really benefit a quick starter like Gould. I'm sure we all remember the 11-5 lead he had against Robertson in 2010, and winning that match would have given him an excellent chance against Steve Davis in the quarter-finals, but that third session turned out to be one too many for him. There is also a question of form with him, having not played particularly well in this last part of the season so far. He actually got whitewashed by a local kid in the 1st round of the China Open, which can't be a great sign ahead of this tournament. Drawing Ding in the 1st round doesn't help either.
Moving on to the players who have a more realistic chance of winning this title...
Mark Allen has been playing well all season. He was a semi-finalist in the Shanghai Masters and the Welsh Open, then capitalized on his good form by winning the PTC Finals last month. That tournament was a great example of why Allen could be dangerous here. He found himself behind against Murphy in the semi-finals and again against Walden in the final, but he kept fighting and eventually took control of both matches. You can't win the World title without fighting qualities. You also need to have the game of course, and Allen has that as well. He pots and scores really well, he holds his own in the safety, and doesn't really get scared of the winning line. It was clear to see how much winning that title meant to him last month. I just hope it has given him the motivation to really prepare for this tournament, rather than get complacent and think he can do well without really putting the work in. He didn't qualify for the China Open, so he had a longer break than most other top players. That's the third year in a row when he was able to avoid the trip to China, but so far that hasn't proved to be any great advantage. In fact, Allen has failed to progress past the early rounds in the last four World Championships, so he kind of has a point to prove here. His draw is quite reasonable this year, so it's up to him to take advantage.
I always struggle to decide what group to put Ding Junhui in. Some people have completely dismissed his chances of winning the World title this year, or ever in fact, even though it's only two years since he held four major titles at once. Unfortunately the 2014 China Open is also the last major title he has won, so it's been a pretty long title drought for him now. He hasn't got particularly close in any event this season, but he has still had some respectable results, including a major semi-final and three further quarter-finals. Unfortunately most of those have been in the best-of-7 format (so it's already a stretch to call them "major" events), while the Crucible is a completely different test altogether. We all know the Crucible has not been his best venue over the years, it would be foolish to argue otherwise, but I do think this is overstated sometimes. His 1st round defeat to Michael Wasley two years ago is the only real shock he has had at the Crucible, at the end of a really strong season for him when it was clear he didn't have much left, while his other defeats have all been against top players or dangerous qualifiers such as Ryan Day. He played one of the all-time great semi-finals against Trump in 2011, and he came up against Trump in ridiculous form again last year, when he was probably playing well enough to progress further in the tournament if he had been a little luckier with the draw. This is a player who has won everything in the game apart from this title, and he would easily be among the favourites here if he could find the kind of form and composure that saw him win four major events two seasons ago. He dealt with the qualifiers without any problems, and he comes here match-sharp and very dangerous. He could have got a worse draw than Gould as well, although I suppose it doesn't really matter that much. He needs to beat them all if he wants to be World champion anyway.
That's exactly what Stuart Bingham did a year ago. He played superb snooker throughout the tournament, and he had one of the toughest routes to the title of any champion in recent years, so no one can dismiss it as a fluke. The following season was always going to be a tricky one for him. I imagine it's not easy to motivate yourself after you've just won the biggest title in the game, but at the same time the luxury of being an underdog is gone, and you are suddenly expected to win all the time. I think Bingham would have been happy just to win one major title this season, but unfortunately it hasn't quite happened for him. He got very close in the World Grand Prix, losing 10-9 to Murphy in the final. He was also a semi-finalist in the Masters and the Shanghai Masters, but apart from that it's mostly been early exits. I'm sure there will be some talk of the Crucible Curse on Saturday... It would be funny if Bingham was the player that finally managed to break it, after all the great players that have failed to do it down the years. I'm sure it will be an emotional return for him, although it's worth noting that the Crucible wasn't actually among his best venues prior to last year. Carter is exactly the kind of opponent defending champions have been caught out against in the past, so he needs to find his form pretty quickly, especially as his 1st round match will be played in its entirety on the first day. Most people underestimated Bingham last year, myself included, so it would be silly to do so again. That said, he came into the tournament as the reigning Shanghai Masters champion, whereas this year he doesn't really have any great form behind him, so I don't think he will be right at the top of most people's list of favourites here.
I have a feeling Shaun Murphy just might be. He actually went almost ten months without reaching the business end of any major event after his World final last May, but he never gave the impression he was struggling in any way, so this drought went largely unnoticed. It seems he has now found his form just at the right time, winning the World Grand Prix in great style last month. He is a very composed character who doesn't really let anything unsettle him, so it's no wonder he has always done well in the longer matches. He has reached the business end of the World Championship eight times in the last eleven years, which is a record only O'Sullivan can compare with. The decision to go back to a more natural, attacking game seems to have been the correct one for Murphy. It's the kind of game that won him the World title in 2005, and he played very similarly to win the Masters last season and complete the Triple Crown. When the long balls are going in he generally wins matches, but of course it's much more difficult for him to limit the damage when they're not going in. I think he needs to be at his very best to have a chance of winning this Championship. He has the game, the experience and the mental strength to go all the way, and I have the feeling he is perhaps due another big title. That's why I was tempted to include him among the big favourites in this post, but I ultimately decided against it. My biggest problem with Murphy is the fact that O'Sullivan has landed in his quarter. Murphy generally doesn't have a problem facing anyone, but O'Sullivan is clearly an exception, and Murphy admitted as much himself after losing to him with a session to spare two years ago. It was a pathetic performance that Murphy is not likely to forget anytime soon, so I am not entirely convinced things would go differently this time. That said, Murphy did manage to beat O'Sullivan when they met in the German Masters last season, 5-4 on the final black.
Mark Selby is surely a strong contender in any tournament he plays in, although it would be hard to justify putting him among the big favourites this year. This has arguably been his worst season since he first reached a World final in 2007, and it looks like it will be the first time in years that he fails to end the season as the world number one. He actually played alright before new year, getting to the semi-finals of the International and the UK Championship and losing to the eventual champion both times. At that point I didn't think he would go the rest of the season without doing anything of note, but that's exactly what's happened. He withdrew from the last two events for personal reasons, which can't possibly be a good sign, although it's hard to say how that will affect his chances without knowing what those reasons were. There is no doubt Selby is a great battler though, and he usually plays his best when he is under the most pressure. He is one of the best tacticians in the game, a very solid scorer at his best, and he plays the game of snooker with more heart than anyone. His draw here isn't too difficult, and it gives him the chance to play himself into form before he runs into the really top players. He hasn't won a major title since the 2015 China Open just over a year ago, so on the one hand his confidence probably isn't great at the moment, but on the other hand he is definitely due a big title, and it could be this one.
That just leaves the four players who could be considered the big favourites for this year's World title.
Let's start with John Higgins. I was a little reluctant to include him in this group, as my gut feeling tells me he probably doesn't have another World title in him, but based on this season's results there isn't really any good reason to exclude him, especially if we take into account his career as a whole. This is a player who looked like his winning days were over, then went on to win three major ranking titles in 2015, including two this season. His performance to win the International Championship was some of the best snooker anyone has produced all season, and he was a frame away from knocking Robertson out of the UK Championship and probably making himself the tournament favourite in the process. Since new year he hasn't been quite as impressive, although he has still played well at times and just recently reached the semi-finals of the China Open. History tells us that great form just prior to the World Championship doesn't guarantee anything, and it's often the players who have won major titles in the first half of the season that end up doing well here. Higgins' record at the Crucible is quite interesting. He reached the business end of the tournament for eight years in a row between 1996 and 2003, but since then he has actually gone out in the early rounds nine times in twelve appearances. The only three exceptions are 2007, 2009 and 2011, the years when he became World champion. O'Sullivan is often described as an inconsistent player who wins whenever he brings his best snooker to a tournament, but I think that actually applies to Higgins more, while O'Sullivan has had quite consistent results in the World Championship over the years. In any case, Higgins is not a young man anymore, so he is definitely prone to bad sessions and unexpected mistakes, but he also has a bulletproof game when at his best, and there is no one more experienced than him. He has a habit of coming back strongly whenever people are starting to rule him out. As I said, I won't be voting for him on this occasion, but I'm certainly not betting against him either if he makes it to the business end.
Judd Trump has been one of the most consistent players at the Crucible in recent years, usually producing his best snooker or something close to it. Unfortunately he always seems to come up short just as the title begins to look like a possibility for him. His performance against Ding in the quarter-finals last year was superb, but he failed to reproduce it against Bingham when it mattered the most. Still, the list of players that have beaten him at the Crucible is very impressive, and so far only includes the top players. Looking through the favourites for this title, it looks odds against that we get a first-time winner this year, as previous champions far outnumber the other contenders. But if we do get a new winner, I think Trump is the player most likely to do it. Unlike Ding, Maguire or Allen, Trump is still young enough not to feel like time is running out for him. Or at least he shouldn't feel that way, since he is now the same age as O'Sullivan was when he won his first World title. He comes to this tournament on the back of his China Open title, and of course it's worth mentioning that you have to go back almost 20 years to find a player who won the penultimate event of the season, then went on to become World champion. It hasn't happened at all in the time when the China Open has been the penultimate event. That said, Trump came very close to doing it in 2011, when he won the China Open and only missed the World title by three frames in the final. I actually think it was important for him to win in Beijing. He had played some of the best snooker in the world all season, but most of it was wasted on the early rounds of events, while other players were winning titles. I'm sure the China Open title has given him the confidence he needed ahead of this tournament, and a confident Trump is a very dangerous player, difficult to stop. He is in the same quarter as Robertson and Ding here, so he needs all the confidence he can get. He has always been a great potter and a strong scorer, and some of the safety he has played in recent times has been top notch as well. Does he finally have the maturity and the experience needed to go all the way?
Neil Robertson has won everything one can win in snooker, including the World title in 2010, and he has been one of the best players in the world this season. It's interesting, he started winning major titles a decade ago, and at first he struggled with consistency a lot, usually following a good tournament with a couple of bad ones. He was eventually able to reverse that trend, but it seems to have returned this season. He won the Champion of Champions and the UK Championship in the first half of the season, then reached the final in Wales as well, but apart from that it's been almost exclusively early exits for him. I suppose the longer matches here should be more to his liking, with less chance of a slow start or a temporary loss of form ruining his chances. I thought he played some terrific snooker here in 2014 and 2015, but he came across two players in inspired form in Selby and Hawkins respectively. I think Robertson probably has another World title in him. His scoring has been on par with O'Sullivan's in recent years, vastly superior to what it was like in 2010 when he won this title. His will to win is still there, and he seems to have limitless reserves of patience and concentration. The downside is that he is prone to overthinking situations, and he sometimes slows down too much and loses his scoring rhythm as a result. "He plays better when he speeds up a little" is a platitude you often hear in snooker, and sometimes it's quite clearly not true, but I think it does apply in Robertson's case. It's hard to survive the 17 days if every match is an epic battle, you need to make it easy for yourself at least some of the time. It's already tough enough for Robertson that he landed in the same quarter as Trump, the one player he doesn't have the best record against. It's also a question what kind of form he is in at the moment. His performance to win the UK title was reminiscent of the way he won the Grand Prix in 2009, before going on to win the Worlds, but on the other hand he hasn't actually won a match since the Welsh Open in February, which is amazing and a little worrying for a player of his class. Can he raise his game one final time this season?
And let's conclude with Ronnie O'Sullivan on this occasion. As I said above, his reputation for inconsistency is largely undeserved. He has reached the business end of the World Championship for six years in a row now, and has only failed to do so four times in the last 21 years. He has quite literally been the man to beat at the Crucible in recent times, as every Championship since 2011 has either been won by O'Sullivan or the player who knocked him out. He comes to this tournament having not played much snooker this season. He only played at three major venues prior to this event, but he still managed to win two titles, the same as Robertson and Higgins. If snooker was a computer game, I think O'Sullivan would have two "lives" at every event. He can either play brilliantly and win it in style, like he did in the Welsh Open, or he can play nothing special and still end up winning, as his opponents defeat themselves even before the match starts, like in the Masters or last season's UK Championship. O'Sullivan has worked hard over the years to build up this aura of invincibility. It only takes short bursts of great form now for him to put immense pressure on his opponents, and he knows how to finish them the moment he senses any weakness. He is still the best scorer in the game, along with Robertson perhaps, and he has a better safety game than the vast majority of other contenders. It also seems like his long game has returned to what it was like before its decline around 2008, which is amazing for a player in his 40s now. Of course O'Sullivan's results have often come down to his mental state rather than his form in the past, and even in that respect he seems to be really strong at the moment. His composure at the Welsh Open was very good, as was his response to going a few frames behind in the final, which was basically his only setback all week. The long matches here mean there is lots of time for something to go wrong, but also lots of time to recover from any setbacks, which should give an advantage to the really top players such as O'Sullivan. It's tough to find any weakness with him at the moment, but I suppose history speaks for itself. He has been the tournament favourite almost every year for a long time now, but statistically he doesn't actually win all that often. He is still probably getting my vote this year though.
I think that's about all I have to say before the snooker starts. :smile:
Who do you think is going to win the 2016 World Championship?
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